Should we be happy/relieved/cautious over the latest swine flu figures that show only 30,000 new cases were reported last week (compared with 110,000 the previous week). I keep hearing the catchphrase from BBC4's docudrama, The Forgotten Fallen, in my head: "It comes back". Which is of course what Sir Liam Donaldson and others keep saying.
But I still have concerns over the figures being banded about. Leaving aside for a moment the questions of how that '30,000' is calculated, the BBC news story suddenly said: "The total of swine flu-related deaths in England and Scotland stands at 40". Er, just a minute - only yesterday it was 31 dead - so we've had a 30 per cent rise in the number of deaths?!
Still, may hay while the sunshines and if you want to know what's likely to happen in Europe over the winter, just see what's happening in the southern hemisphere at the moment. Argentina is a sobering place to start.
Friday, 7 August 2009
Thursday, 6 August 2009
Mass of Separation
.
I am grateful to Channel Four blogger, Dr Peter Stott, for bringing this to my attention. It is the Mass of Separation from the 13th Century and was a series of instructions to sufferers from leprosy. Strangely, the instructions are equally valid today for avoiding the spread of swine flu! Just shows how little our understanding of viruses has grown in 700 years!
I am grateful to Channel Four blogger, Dr Peter Stott, for bringing this to my attention. It is the Mass of Separation from the 13th Century and was a series of instructions to sufferers from leprosy. Strangely, the instructions are equally valid today for avoiding the spread of swine flu! Just shows how little our understanding of viruses has grown in 700 years!MASS OF SEPARATION
"I forbid you to ever enter a church, a monastery, a fair, a mill, a market or an assembly of people.
"I forbid you to leave your house unless dressed in your recognisable garb and also shod.
"I forbid you to wash your hands or to launder anything or to drink at any stream or fountain, unless using your own barrel or dipper.
"I forbid you to touch anything you buy or barter for, until it becomes your own.
"I forbid you to enter any tavern; and if you wish for wine, whether you buy it or it is given to you, have it funnelled into your keg.
"I forbid you to share house with any woman but your wife. I command you, if accosted by anyone while travelling on a road, to set yourself down-wind of them before you answer.
"I forbid you to enter any narrow passage, lest a passerby bump into you.
"I forbid you, wherever you go, to touch the rim or the rope of a well without donning your gloves.
"I forbid you to touch any child or give them anything. I forbid you to drink or eat from any vessel but your own."
Wednesday, 5 August 2009
Northern Ireland's first swine flu fatality
How sad to learn of Northern Ireland's first swine flu death - Lee Porter was only 30 years old. Once again journalists are unquestioningly throwing in the line that he had "underlying health problems" as some sort of reassurance to the public. He was 30 years old, a bombardier in the Royal Artillery and also worked in the fire service. It's hard to see what underlying health problems someone that young and fit could have that would weaken him to the effects of swine flu. The BBC says he is the 28th person in England (surely United Kingdom?) to have died, plus three in Scotland.
On BBC4 tonight (Wednesday, August 5th) at 9pm there is a docu-drama on the Spanish flu of 1918 and that's followed by a documentary on how the world tries to cope with pandemics. Should be interesting if morbid viewing.
On BBC4 tonight (Wednesday, August 5th) at 9pm there is a docu-drama on the Spanish flu of 1918 and that's followed by a documentary on how the world tries to cope with pandemics. Should be interesting if morbid viewing.
Tuesday, 4 August 2009
Men in Black
.
Those who watched the webchat with Dr Nigel Calvert yesterday (and those who didn't can replay it online) will no doubt know more about swine flu than most other experts! He was superb - giving quick, concise answers to a myriad of questions. There was some very interesting stuff, not least a first figure on swine flu in Cumbria for some weeks. He estimated - and emphasised it could only be an estimate - that there are currently 600 swine flu cases in Cumbria. I also found interesting the comment from 'Brian' who said his mate had swine flu and the boss sent somebody round to take a swab. 'What's the point of that' asked Brian. What's the point indeed. Are employers going to then prescribe tamiflu or offer a course of treatment - or turn round and say "I don't care what your doctor says, you haven't got swine flu so get yourself back to work". Bizarre. It also had a flavour of Men in Black nipping round to swine flu cases echoing tales and legends in plague times past of strangers wandering the land. Dr Calvert, NHS Cumbria’s associate director of Public Health, said: "We have been asking a sample of people to take a swab so we can see what proportion of people getting tamiflu actually have the flu. I have heard of some employers who are doing swab tests. Many people with suspected swine flu will actually have some other infections like bad colds." I can understand doctors taking swabs - but company bosses?!
Those who watched the webchat with Dr Nigel Calvert yesterday (and those who didn't can replay it online) will no doubt know more about swine flu than most other experts! He was superb - giving quick, concise answers to a myriad of questions. There was some very interesting stuff, not least a first figure on swine flu in Cumbria for some weeks. He estimated - and emphasised it could only be an estimate - that there are currently 600 swine flu cases in Cumbria. I also found interesting the comment from 'Brian' who said his mate had swine flu and the boss sent somebody round to take a swab. 'What's the point of that' asked Brian. What's the point indeed. Are employers going to then prescribe tamiflu or offer a course of treatment - or turn round and say "I don't care what your doctor says, you haven't got swine flu so get yourself back to work". Bizarre. It also had a flavour of Men in Black nipping round to swine flu cases echoing tales and legends in plague times past of strangers wandering the land. Dr Calvert, NHS Cumbria’s associate director of Public Health, said: "We have been asking a sample of people to take a swab so we can see what proportion of people getting tamiflu actually have the flu. I have heard of some employers who are doing swab tests. Many people with suspected swine flu will actually have some other infections like bad colds." I can understand doctors taking swabs - but company bosses?!
Monday, 3 August 2009
Patient Zero
.
Who was the first person in the world to get swine flu? Experts are divided between a six-month-old child in Mexico and five-year-old Edgar Hernandez. But Edgar is the one who has caught the attention of the world media (well babies are more difficult to interview) and Edgar even has a statue of himself. The sculptor was Bernardo Luis Artasanchez who seemed to share the net's belief that there is something significant in being the first. The statue is called Nino Cero – Little Boy Zero and it stands in Edgar's home town of La Gloria, Mexico. It may be doing some good. It's starting to attract tourists to the small town, no doubt giving a welcome boost to the economy. But others are unhappy at their town becoming infamous as the place where swine flu started.
Who was the first person in the world to get swine flu? Experts are divided between a six-month-old child in Mexico and five-year-old Edgar Hernandez. But Edgar is the one who has caught the attention of the world media (well babies are more difficult to interview) and Edgar even has a statue of himself. The sculptor was Bernardo Luis Artasanchez who seemed to share the net's belief that there is something significant in being the first. The statue is called Nino Cero – Little Boy Zero and it stands in Edgar's home town of La Gloria, Mexico. It may be doing some good. It's starting to attract tourists to the small town, no doubt giving a welcome boost to the economy. But others are unhappy at their town becoming infamous as the place where swine flu started.
Sunday, 2 August 2009
It's not just me
I was encouraged to see the Royal Statistical Society questioning the lack of detail in the government swine flu statistics - though I fear this is one press release that is going to pass most journalists by. President David Hand had written to Sir Liam Donaldson with a few questions. You will find his letter online but the key points are:
The dangers of producing weekly reports on swine flu instead of daily ones
"Readers of the UK’s weekly H1N1v updates need to know numerators and denominators, not just percentages, and the empirical basis for multipliers used in inferring from GP-consultations for influenza-like-illness (ILI) to headline figures on the estimated number of H1N1v cases. Moreover, the provenance for intervals of uncertainty should be properly explained."
I think that's what I've been saying - but the RSS puts it in their own jargon. It seems to be saying there's a basic lack of statistical data missing. If so, journalists should be highlighting the government's failure to understand the necessity of such information.
But I fear not much is going to come of this. Journalists and maths/statistics just do not mix. Very, very few journalists have the understanding to look at a graph or table of stats and ask pertinent questions. And there's another problem. The Royal Statistical Society can't talk in plain English. They need a press officer who can explain in layman's term precisely what their concerns are with H1N1 statistics. It's no good hiding behind "oh it's all very complicated and can't be simplified". It's the job of press officers and journalists to make sure the public can understand such information.
One bright light on the horizon: The RSS does hand out awards on statistical excellence in journalism which hopefully encourages the hacks to improve their act.
The dangers of producing weekly reports on swine flu instead of daily ones
- Some vagueness on statistical standards
- Lack of demography in the data
- Lack of other data relating to sex and age of patients
"Readers of the UK’s weekly H1N1v updates need to know numerators and denominators, not just percentages, and the empirical basis for multipliers used in inferring from GP-consultations for influenza-like-illness (ILI) to headline figures on the estimated number of H1N1v cases. Moreover, the provenance for intervals of uncertainty should be properly explained."
I think that's what I've been saying - but the RSS puts it in their own jargon. It seems to be saying there's a basic lack of statistical data missing. If so, journalists should be highlighting the government's failure to understand the necessity of such information.
But I fear not much is going to come of this. Journalists and maths/statistics just do not mix. Very, very few journalists have the understanding to look at a graph or table of stats and ask pertinent questions. And there's another problem. The Royal Statistical Society can't talk in plain English. They need a press officer who can explain in layman's term precisely what their concerns are with H1N1 statistics. It's no good hiding behind "oh it's all very complicated and can't be simplified". It's the job of press officers and journalists to make sure the public can understand such information.
One bright light on the horizon: The RSS does hand out awards on statistical excellence in journalism which hopefully encourages the hacks to improve their act.
Saturday, 1 August 2009
Thin on the ground
One member of staff has gone down with 'swine flu' - as much as anyone knows if they really have swine flu or not. Dr Google tells you that you have some of the symptoms and prescribes you Tamiflu but no one ever gets really tested for the virus. However, one member of staff off ill during this holiday period and post-redundancy era is already having a big effect on how the paper operates and even gets out. The public keep phoning in with news but there's simply not enough people to process them all properly. My in-tray is getting bigger but the public are going to just have to understand that we're in strange and difficult times.
I did manage to get to Keswick Theatre last night for Midsummer Night's Dream (excellent show by the way). It was nice to see so many young kids in the audience - well, not the teenage girls rustling plastic sweet bags all through the first half. But one poor lad (probably about seven years old) was coughing like a good un. A few weeks ago he would have been in quarantine with parents gravely muttering 'swine flu' to family and friends. But, hey, this is the summer holidays so he was out at the theatre. And I overheard his dad in the pouring rain after the show telling the taxi driver to take them back to the campsite. That's the Bulldog spirit we've been missing!
I did manage to get to Keswick Theatre last night for Midsummer Night's Dream (excellent show by the way). It was nice to see so many young kids in the audience - well, not the teenage girls rustling plastic sweet bags all through the first half. But one poor lad (probably about seven years old) was coughing like a good un. A few weeks ago he would have been in quarantine with parents gravely muttering 'swine flu' to family and friends. But, hey, this is the summer holidays so he was out at the theatre. And I overheard his dad in the pouring rain after the show telling the taxi driver to take them back to the campsite. That's the Bulldog spirit we've been missing!
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