Scotland's heavy toll

There have been an increasing number of headlines in the UK talking about the demise of swine flu. That might be premature. Scotland has just announced that it's death toll has risen above the landmark of 50 to 51. Last Thursday it was 41. Scotland has suffered more than its fair share of tragedy from swine flu including the first UK victim back in June 2009. Lately, Scotland has had something of a half-term breather but swine flu has been quick to catch-up. Schools will soon break-up for Christmas giving a new fire-break but that may suggest January to March 2010 could be our worst weeks.

How bonkers is this

The latest swine flu death in Scotland is of an adult from the Ayrshire and Arran area. Authorities are not releasing the gender "for reasons of confidentiality". Has this country gone completely bonkers. One can understand the family not wanting the name of the person released but is saying the person is male or female really going to cause them any grief. Are reporters, on hearing it's a man, going to knock on the door every every family who have recently had a man die in the hopes of an exclusive interview?! We can laugh at the Ukraine or other countries for not telling their public what's happening with swine flu but it pales into comparison with the culture of swine flu secrecy in the UK. I post up again (above) the comparison with what data we get now with what people were told during the Black Death! I suspect Scottish authorities are not releasing details because if it's found out that the person who died worked at a children's nursery there might be a certain amount of panic among parents. But judging by the death rate in Scotland from swine flu a little bit of panic might actually do some good in encouraging people to get vaccinated. Thirty years in journalism, and I've never come across anything as bonkers as this.

Two more Scottish deaths

Scotland continues to suffer a heavy toll from swine flu. The deaths of two more men have been reported today. Press Association say: "Both patients, a 42-year-old man from Glasgow and a 75-year-old man from Grampian, had underlying health conditions." This brings the Scottish death toll to 12. And just as we were thinking swine flu might go away.

Latest swine flu death in UK

It's never going to be good news when I have to update our unoffical swine flu death list. The latest to be publicly announced is a 53-year-old man from Fife, Scotland who, rather surprisingly, health officials have admitted had no underlying health problems. All other cases in Scotland have been said to have had UHPs. Locally, Carlisle's Trinity School seems to be handling its swine flu scare with a cool level-head. An example to all other schools and parents?

Er, excuse me. Should we be starting to panic?

Buried under the 'good news' today that the estimated number of swine flu deaths will be 'only' 20,000 is the latest death toll to date from swine flu in the UK. Seventy have died as of September 3, 2009. But let me put that into some context: 105 have died throughout Europe - 70 of those in the UK. As someone living in the UK, I'm getting just a little worried. What is the UK doing wrong? Are we just correctly diagnosing more swine flu deaths than other European countries or are we so bad at controlling this epidemic that it's killing more Britons?

I did like this headline in The Scottish Sun: "Swine Flu To Affect Less Scots" (Note to the subs on The Scottish Sun: That's FEWER Scots!). Given Scotland has had seven deaths (Wales one death, Northern Ireland one death) I'd be interested in what statisticians think about Scotland being a safe place to live at the moment.

Another Scottish death

Another swine flu death, another glib reference to the person having 'underlying health problems' (UHPs).

This time it's a 59-year-old woman from Islay, in Argyll - the sixth person to die in Scotland. No other details are released and yet we are reliably informed by Scottish health secretary Nicola Sturgeon that "As we have seen in previous cases, this patient was suffering from underlying health conditions and her death should not cause alarm among the general population".

But what are these UHPs? Mild asthma (like what I've got), epilepsy (as at least one report suggests was a contributory cause in a swine flu death) or is it just a phrase churned out each time to reassure the public.

In my quest to pin down when to panic and when not to, I have found this advice on the World Health Organisation website. It says medical attention should be sought when any of the following danger signs appear in someone with confirmed or suspected H1N1 infection:

• Shortness of breath, either during physical activity or while resting
• Difficulty breathing
• Turning blue
• Bloody or coloured sputum
• Chest pain
• Altered mental state, including drowsiness and confusion
• High fever that persists beyond three days
• Low blood pressure
• In children, warning signs include fast or laboured breathing, lack of alertness, difficulty in waking up, and little or no desire to play.

Incidentally a Leicestershire doctor said at the start of August there had been five deaths to date (in England? or the UK?) where there were no UHPs. It's worth looking at this report just for the delightful picture of Dr Brian Brown that accompanies it!

Latest swine flu figures

The latest swine flu figures continue to show a drop in the number of new cases (but there are still new cases). In the last week there have been 11,000 confirmed new cases in England (it was 25,000 the previous week). There have been 1,793 cases confirmed in Scotland - the full report is online. Curiously the BBC news on Radio 2 talked about 54 deaths in England to date - poor old Scotland being left out again. In fact it is 59 deaths so far for the UK. The map shows the cases across Europe - it is explained fully on the website of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control but shows the UK suffering worse than any of our European neighbours. Why? There have been 73 deaths across Europe - 59 of those in the UK. The USA has reported 477 swine flu deaths. Australia has reported 128 deaths.